torsdag 26. november 2015

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) - Brilliant company that was dragged down by VW

As a value investor looking for themes the german car industry was a solid opportunity post the Volkswagen driven "dieselgate" scandal. VW dragged down the stock price of BMW, without BMW having anything to do with the scandal. The financial press reported fake stories regarding the company´s involvement in the scandal assisting in the stock´s bearish development.

I bought a significant position in the company 2nd October and have thus far had a 28 % return on my investment. At the time of the purchase BMW was trading at a trailing P/E of 8.6x. The stock is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 10.7x, still significantly below most comparable companies. I will exit my position when the company is trading in the 12 - 13x trailing P/E range (inline with the rest of the industry). The company´s justified trailing P/E is 12.5x if one assumes a 5 % growth in dividends, 8 % required rate of return and a 34 % payout ratio. It is not too late to get in on the action.

Peer analysis:

                               Source: Financial Times

Besides still being priced cheaply compared to many of its peers BMW is one of the most valuable brands in the world and a solid company that has proven steady growth. According to Forbes BMW is the 16th most valuable brand in the world, and the second most valuable automobile brand. The brand´s focus on solid, quick and sporty cars have been a successful receipt for decades.

Automobile brand value:      

                                Source: Forbes

Consensus expected earnings growth BMW:

                               Source: Financial Times

My BMW M4 (I may hold on to this stock out of loyalty):


Disclosure: I am long Bayerische Motoren Werke AG

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving any compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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